It might be time for the Indianapolis Colts, my favorite team, to rebuild or at least change something. For the fifth season in the Frank Reich era, the Colts came out flat in week 1 and embarrassed themselves in Jacksonville, and haven’t improved much since. They ended last season with back-to-back losses that had them watching the postseason from home after having a 98% chance to qualify. Since I wrote this first part of this piece, Frank Reich’s job role in Indianapolis was terminated.
All offseason, the leadership insisted that they would be “all chips in” but they did the opposite. Everything that wasn’t good in 2021- quarterback, receivers, left tackle- continues to be an issue here in 2022, and that falls on both the coaching staff and the front office. Both Frank Reich and Chris Ballard are far too passive, and this team looks unprepared and comes out flat every single week.
But I’m not here to only say the negatives. Ballard is a fantastic scout and talent-evaluator and Frank Reich is a very good offensive play-designer, but can they really be a Super Bowl-winning duo? I’m not so sure that they’ll ever admit that their process was wrong, so Frank Reich has been canned and Ballard may be as well. Here’s why.
Chris Ballard is far too passive, and in my opinion, should take more blame for the quick downfall of the Colts than Reich. He’s the guy behind their passive philosophy that hasn’t gotten anybody a Lombardi Trophy in at least 10 years, and if you are going to bypass improving your roster every other offseason, you need to hit on every draft or else your team will eventually fall apart. Unsurprisingly, the roster has drastically regressed, and so far, only Frank Reich has received any blame.
If you aren’t convinced that such a passive GM will still work because of his draft history, his handling of the coaching staff and Quarterback should convince you. The initial coaching staff in 2018 was great, but those guys eventually succeeded in other places, and Ballard’s replacements have been mediocre at best and catastrophic at worst. He is also scared to compete at Quarterback, the league’s most important position. He has never tried to get a long-term answer, mostly because like his other philosophies, he’s too scared to take a risk. Drafting a Quarterback is a risk, but if it succeeds, you can win a Super Bowl. Needless to say, Chris Ballard has been too scared to try to get a long-term answer, and now, Indianapolis is nowhere near contending for a Super Bowl. Ballard is too passive and needs to go.
This article won’t linger too much on what happened, but will project to what the Colts will hopefully do in the future, at least under my hypothetical world where I take charge of this trainwreck of an organization.
So, if Ballard goes, who could lead the new Colts regime? Spoiler alert: NOT Jeff Saturday.
Front Office
So, as most teams do, let’s say that the Colts looked for a GM first. Who would be the top options? Alec Alaby - Eagles Assistant GM
Alaby is a name that I’d be very intrigued by. Coming from the analytics side, Alaby is behind one of the most impressive front-office turnarounds that we’ve seen in a long time, but he also has great knowledge of the game. I had the opportunity to talk to him during Wharton’s Summer Moneyball Program, and I was very impressed with how he viewed the game. Alaby comes from a good place that has produced several quality GMs and he could easily be the next.
Brandon Hunt - Steelers Pro Scouting Director
Hunt comes from the Steelers background, and they have been a force in the NFL for a long time. Their process is very good, but would Hunt be able to adapt if the draft-and-develop strategy flopped? Not so sure…
Adam Peters - 49ers Assistant GM
Peters is a prime candidate for this job. He’s been behind building a stout 49ers defense and has built around Kyle Shanahan very well. He comes from a scouting side, but isn’t a pure scout in the way that others are, and could be a great GM. He’s already gotten interviews before, so he could be getting a job sooner rather than later.
Mike Greenberg - Buccaneers VP of football administration
Greenberg is a really intriguing name, coming from a salary cap perspective. Greenberg has pulled off some salary cap magic with Tampa lately, and having somebody who can manage resources the way that he can and being given the strong Colts scouting department could result in a fantastic front office structure in Indianapolis.
Will McClay - Cowboys VP of Player Personnel
McClay could easily be a GM by now, but he’s been chilling in Dallas. He basically has the responsibilities and pay of a GM in Dallas, and nobody is sure if he’d leave his home state. If Indy can land McClay, they should do it in a heartbeat, but somebody who has acquired talent as well as he has won’t be easy to get.
Mike Borgonzi - Chiefs Assistant GM
Borgonzi has circled GM searches for years now, and for good reason. He has been behind building the sustained success of the Chiefs in the past few years, and is highly respected across the league. An intriguing name to look at.
Jeff Ireland - Saints Assistant GM
Ireland has had lots of responsibilities working with Mickey Loomis in New Orleans for a very long time, but has never earned himself a GM job. He always seems to be in discussions, but never actually lands a gig. With the way that New Orleans is looking this year, I’m not sure that he’ll get a job this year, but he’ll always be in contention for one.
The Pick: Alec Alaby. Coming from a place that has pumped out quality GMs (Philadelphia) and being Howie Roseman’s right-hand man, I would trust Alaby to lead a franchise to the promised land. I think they may go with a more traditional mind like Peters, but I am writing this article so I make the rules.
Head Coach
After hiring Alaby, what would I do when it came to hiring a head coach?
Sean Payton - Former Saints HC
Payton will be able to pick between 10 jobs this offseason, and there’s no way that he’s picking Indianapolis. Move on.
Demeco Ryans - 49ers Defensive Coordinator
Ryans is awesome. He coordinates the incredible 49ers defense, and has everybody on that defense playing for him with passion. He’s been a coach for only about 5 years, and nobody has even questioned whether or not he deserves to be a Head Coach. Getting him to come to Indy may be a challenge, as he declined a second interview from the Vikings, but he may be my favorite candidate.
Ken Dorsey - Bills Offensive Coordinator
Dorsey has led one of the most potent offenses in the league. He is a younger guy who has shown his temper issues before, but this Bills offense looks incredible. He without a doubt has the resume, but can he keep up with imperfect situations? Not so sure.
Leslie Frazier - Bills Defensive Coordinator
Just under a decade after Frazier got his first job in Minnesota, it may be time to give him another shot. He has coordinated a Bills defense that is disciplined and well-coached, and has tremendous respect as a leader across the league.
Shane Steichen - Eagles Offensive Coordinator
Steichen has established himself as a good offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, but being a Head Coach is a whole other gauntlet. He can lead an offense, and if Alec Alaby, who has ties with the Eagles, trusts him to lead a locker room, he would be a formidable candidate for this job.
Ben Johnson - Lions Offensive Coordinator
Johnson’s offense has looked very impressive this year. Ben Johnson boasts one of the most unique rushing attacks in the NFL, and has gotten great production out of an otherwise mediocre Lions offense. He may be a year or two away, but Johnson could be a great candidate.
Other Candidates: Eric Bienemy, Mike Kafka, Raheem Morris
The Pick: Demeco Ryans. If the Colts can land Ryans’s leadership and defense, that would be amazing. He’s a fast-riser who deserves every promotion that he’s got, and I’d trust him to lead my franchise in a heartbeat.
A former player for Ryans, Charles Omenihu, said: "Definitely a breath of fresh air for sure, this year has been a long year for me personally in my third year. My third year didn't go, as far as early on, how I thought it would be coming off of my second year—just a combination of what I was going through over there. Coming here was definitely a breath of fresh air. I love it. The organization has a lot of structure. This is not an ego-driven kind of organization. It's not a power struggle either. So it's definitely good to experience that." It’s clear that he’s a leader who fits the requirements of successful NFL Head Coaches in 2023.
Rest of Coaching Staff
Frank Reich and Chris Ballard have really struggled with hiring the coaching staff around them, so I’ll do it better.
Joe Brady - Offensive Coordinator
Brady was the scapegoat in Carolina, but his resume in his last four seasons speaks for itself. In 2019, he led the best college football offense in recent memory at LSU, while being the WRs coach to top WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. In 2020 and 2021, we’ve seen that his work in Carolina was very impressive, as the Panthers were a competent team with him, and couldn’t function without him. His head coach, Matt Rhule, was also abysmal, and Rhule’s firing of Brady backfired tremendously. In 2022, he went to be Josh Allen’s QBs coach, guiding him to a near-MVP season. Brady’s air-raid, unique offense has a high floor and a high ceiling. It’s certainly worth giving him a second chance.
Kris Kocurek - Defensive Coordinator (if Gus Bradley leaves)
Kris Kocurek is the guy behind the 49ers monster pass rush, so giving him a promotion would make sense. Like Ryans, it would be hard to lure him over, but the Colts certainly have the money and would benefit from a game-breaking pass rush.
Other Staff
The rest of the coaching staff needs a rework as well, with all of the defensive staff likely going with Gus Bradley, and the offense undergoing some turnover as well. It’s hard to research who would be good fits for these roles, but I can present what has been an issue.
Jobs are safe | On the Fence | Gotta go | Gus's Guys |
Reggie Wayne (WR) Scottie Montgomery (RB) Mike Mitchell (SAF) Bubba Ventrone (ST) | Klayton Adams (TE) Nate Ollie (DL) Scott Milanovich (QB) | Chris Strausser (OL) | Gus Bradley (DC) Richard Smith (LB) Ron Milus (DB) |
I’m not going to act like I know the position coaches to hire, but I can identify decently well whether or not the current guys in the building are doing a good enough job. A new defensive staff, OL coach, and maybe a QB coach is nothing short of a necessity.
The defensive staff turnover may puzzle some people, but I think that Gus would probably go if Indy hires a defensive head coach. Bradley’s defense is good, but not amazing, and struggles against good quarterbacks due to his bland defensive schemes. He is a stable force, but Demeco may want his own guy.
Overhauling the Roster
The Colts are built to compete with their money allocation, but they could sell their players for picks and reboot very quickly. They’ve already traded Nyheim Hines, so what could they do next?
The obvious first moves come at QB. Cutting QB Nick Foles would be good if they plan to bring in anybody else at QB. That saves $2.1M. Next, Indy has to let go of Matt Ryan. Ideally, you’d like to trade him to avoid a $18M dead cap hit, but finding a suitor who would take on over 20 million would be tough. Cutting him to save 17 million is necessary.
Next, Indy should probably sell a lot of their expensive pieces to prepare for a full reset if they want to make a Super Bowl. They should try to sell expensive and underperforming offensive linemen such as Braden Smith, Quenton Nelson, and Ryan Kelly. Nelson’s contract is unmovable, but selling Kelly gives the Colts an extra $8M and selling Smith gives Indy another $10M. Realistically, among this group, only Kelly’s contract is desirable for other teams. The best landing spot for Kelly, in my opinion, is the New York Giants, who would greatly benefit from even a competent center. Netting either of the Giants’ third round picks for Kelly is a beneficial deal.
The Colts also have some desirable assets on defense, and some schematic adjustments may cause some turnover. The assets likely to be sold by this new regime are Kenny Moore II, Stephon Gilmore, and Shaquille Leonard. Realistically, Indy only sells one of these guys, but they could easily get similar capital to what they got for Kelly for a guy like Gilmore.
Free Agency
Chris Ballard is known for being incredibly passive in Free Agency, but Alec Alaby won’t repeat his mistake. Now, there’s no reason to go for big splashes with the state of this team, but shoring up some positions of need even with band-aid options would allow Demeco Ryans’s team to succeed in 2022.
To start, they should bring back some of their own. Bobby Okereke is the star of their expiring deals, and having an elite cover linebacker in Ryans’s defense enables it to be elite, like it is in San Francisco with Fred Warner. I would not be opposed to Indy giving Okereke what he’s worth, especially if they move on from Shaq Leonard. They also have lots of good role-players who I’d like to see back. Ashton Dulin, Parris Campbell, Deon Jackson, Dennis Kelly, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Tyquan Lewis, EJ Speed, Rodney McLeod, and Chase McLaughlin have been good contributors in 2022, and would greatly benefit from a new coaching staff. This would let lots of underwhelming performers such as Matt Pryor and Brandon Facyson hit free agency, leaving major holes at LT, CB, and more.
When it comes to external free agents, the two biggest needs are once again OL and CB, which shows how poorly Ballard has built this roster. Obviously, Indianapolis could acquire a quarterback, but they would realistically only get a bridge quarterback like Jacoby Brissett, Teddy Bridgewater, and maybe even Sam Darnold depending on if Joe Brady likes him. I’ve written before about how hard it is to acquire those positions in free agency, but Alaby should try his best. Luckily, the cornerback market is incredibly robust, with players like Sean Murphy-Bunting, Emmanuel Moseley, and more hitting the market. Nobody should be too expensive and getting a starter for a relatively cheap price should be one of the first things that Alec Alaby does, especially in a year where it’s so easy to do so. I see Demeco Ryans going after Moseley, who would benefit from the continuity that comes with staying with that elite coaching staff.
Getting a quality offensive lineman will prove to be much harder. The tackle market has players like Jack Conklin and Orlando Brown, but they won’t be cheap. My personal preference, and maybe even prediction, is Eagles backup Andre Dillard. Indy can afford to give him a swing-tackle contract and he’d protect the next QB well, even if he can’t add surplus value in the run-game. Luckily, Indy’s run game as it’s designed doesn’t need incredible run-blockers due to running a lot in between the tackles, but that could change depending on who next takes charge of the offense. Obviously, Dillard wouldn’t be the long-term option, but he’s still a viable band-aid who can slot into either tackle spot.
Aside from Moseley and Dillard, I don’t see Indy taking too many external swings in free agency to allow for a smoother reset. There are definitely guys I could see them signing, including a new center, but it would be very hard to predict the signing of anyone going to a small market, rebuilding team with no previous ties to the front office or the coaching staff. The Draft
The final piece to the Colts’ best possible reset is a killer draft. They have several needs going in, but the most important one is Quarterback. Unfortunately, Indy isn’t in the best spot to get a quarterback, as their four wins and a tie put them ahead of several QB-needy teams. With the way that I project the season to end, I have Indianapolis winning one more game, putting them behind Houston, Detroit (pick acquired from LAR), Carolina, and Chicago. And, if the first three teams take a quarterback, I’m not so sure that Indy will.
Now, in December of 2022, I can’t project one outcome of the draft, so I’m going to be open-minded and have two options play out. While the second may seem unlikely, it’s worth entertaining.
Option 1: QB Early
Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
1 | Houston Texans | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama |
2 | Detroit Lions (LAR) | Jalen Carter | DT | Georgia |
3 | Carolina Panthers | CJ Stroud | QB | Ohio State |
4 | Chicago Bears | Will Anderson | EDGE | Alabama |
Indy needs a QB, OT, CB, and WR. Let’s go.
Round 1, Pick 5: Indianapolis will likely fall in love with Kentucky QB Will Levis no matter who’s sitting in the GM seat. Levis is a somewhat raw QB prospect but has shown flashes of stardom and has all of the traits that guys like Joe Burrow have to thrive in the NFL. If Indy takes a very early swing on a quarterback, I’d want it to be Young, Stroud, or Levis.
Round 2, Pick 36: The Colts desperately need help along the offensive line, and I anticipate Maryland OT Jaelyn Duncan to be the best guy available for that role. Duncan has a decent floor and a decent ceiling, making him a solid round 2 guy to hopefully be Will Levis’s blindside blocker of the future.
Round 3, Pick 81: I really like Mississippi State’s CB Emmanuel Forbes mostly because he has incredible confidence and decent tools. He could be a frisky but good option in round 3.
Option 2: QB Late
Pick | Teams | Player | Position | School |
1 | Houston Texans | CJ Stroud | QB | Ohio State |
2 | Detroit Lions (LAR) | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama |
3 | Carolina Panthers | Will Levis | QB | Kentucky |
4 | Chicago Bears | Will Anderson | EDGE | Alabama |
If this result plays out, I don’t see much value in staying at pick 5. The best available players all play along the defensive line, something that the Colts need a lot less than some of the teams behind them. The next picks in line are the Raiders, Broncos, Eagles (via Saints), Jaguars, and Cardinals. Naturally, I could see Arizona, a team known to make aggressive moves, moving up for Jalen Carter, who is the second-best non-QB in the draft. Trading up from pick 5 to pick 10 probably costs the Cardinals a round 2 pick.
From here, Indianapolis has the 10th pick (via AZ), the 36th, the 37th (via AZ), and the 81st (via WASH). Here’s how I see them spent.
Round 1, Pick 10: Indianapolis is in desperate need of a true cornerstone offensive tackle, as they haven’t had that for a while. I anticipate Georgia’s physically gifted Broderick Jones to be gone, but Northwestern’s OT Peter Skoronski is arguably the better year 1 player, and can help turn around the Colts’ offensive line quickly.
Round 1, Pick 29 (TRADE): Indy should absolutely be targeting a quarterback in round 1. If they don’t feel the need to take one early, they could easily flip a deal with Philadelphia, Alec Alaby’s current team, to move up for Florida’s QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson is incredibly raw but could be the Jalen Hurts of this team. Richardson shows incredible athletic potential and the Colts still have room for error if he doesn’t hit. A mobile QB like Richardson is an incredible help to any offense, especially with a guy like Jonathan Taylor to make an elite backfield.
Round 2, Pick 37: Illinois’s CB Devon Witherspoon has had an incredible season and could be a cornerstone cornerback for the Colts.
Round 3, Pick 81: Oklahoma’s Marvin Mims is a perfect slot receiver for today’s NFL and would be a great compliment to Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce.
Anyways, the Colts need a reset, and I think this could be the step back that they need before they explode as a super bowl contender!
Comments